Ukraine's need for weapons is so great that continued military assistance to Kiev threatens the West with depletion of its own reserves, CNBC writes. Experts stress that it takes time to increase the production of weapons and the United States is not ready to withdraw them from the reserves meant for its own military.
The U.S. weapons industry produces about 30,000 shells for the 155-millimeter howitzer per year in peacetime, writes CNBC. However, Ukrainian soldiers fighting Russian forces waste a similar amount of shells in two weeks, notes military expert and National Defense University researcher Dave De Roche.
"I'm very concerned. If we don't have new production, which will take months to ramp up, we won't have the ability to supply the Ukrainians," the specialist told CNBC.
In Europe, stocks are also running low. "The military reserves of most [NATO member states in Europe] were, I would not say, exhausted, but depleted to a large extent because we provided the Ukrainians with significant capacity," EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell said earlier.
Military analysts point to an initial problem: Western countries produced weapons in peacetime in much smaller quantities, and governments preferred to cut back on costly production and produce weapons only as needed. Some weapons, whose stockpiles are coming to an end, are no longer being produced. In addition, their production requires highly skilled labor and expertise, something the U.S. manufacturing sector has lacked for years.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said during the UN General Assembly last week that alliance members need to increase production of weapons and ammunition. But ramping up defense production is neither a quick nor an easy step, the paper noted, adding that the U.S. ability to defend itself is at risk.
CNBC reports that the U.S. has essentially run out of 155mm howitzers to give to Ukraine. To send more, they would have to remove them from their own stockpiles reserved for U.S. military units. But military analysts say the Pentagon won't go for it. That's because "the United States needs to maintain a stockpile to ensure that military plans are carried out," explains former U.S. Marine Corps Colonel Mark Kansian.
For the Ukrainian armed forces, this means that some of their most important combat equipment, such as the 155-mm howitzer, must be replaced with older and less effective weapons, such as the 105-mm shorter-range howitzer, the paper writes. "And that's a problem for the Ukrainians," De Roche says. The fact is that the range of fire is crucial in this clash, because the main combat operations are conducted by artillery, the expert emphasizes.
HIMARS launchers, Javelin missiles, Stinger missiles, M777 howitzers and ammunition, which Ukraine also relies on, are also in the US arsenal in limited numbers. The Pentagon has ordered hundreds of millions of dollars worth of new Javelin production, but ramping up production takes time - the numerous suppliers that supply the chemicals and computer chips for each missile have not kept up with the needs, the article noted. According to Kansian, it could take one to four years for the U.S. to significantly increase overall weapons production.
The U.S. Department of Defense, for its part, refuted the suggestion that the U.S. is running out of weapons supplies for Ukraine. "The Department has provided Ukraine with a wide range of capabilities - neither we nor they rely too much on any one system," Defense Department spokeswoman Jessica Maxwell said in an e-mail. According to Maxwell, the Pentagon is "working with industry to accelerate replenishment of depleted supplies."
Meanwhile, Ukraine may start looking for suppliers in other countries - such as South Korea, which in August signed a $5.7 billion contract to sell tanks and howitzers to Poland, CNBC reported.
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