In comparison, the American football season is simple. Depending on whether you follow college football or the NFL more closely, your team has 12 or 17 games, and at a glance, you can piece together the season's toughest stretches, most important games, and so on. You can make sense of the calendar whether you're a writer or a fan. You can devise a battle strategy.
The European football season, on the other hand, goes on indefinitely. It begins months before the start of the American football season and ends months later. When Tottenham Hotspur's Antonio Conte and Chelsea's Thomas Tuchel nearly collided after a tense derby match, there was no need to get excited and check the calendar for when the rematch would take place: It's six months away! Many things will happen between now and then, including a World Cup!
The matches, like the narrative machinations, never stop. Transfer rumors, on the other hand, never seem to die. In other words, creating a season plan is much more difficult, but you can at least create a set of guidelines to follow from week to week to get the most enjoyment out of the season. So here are some of mine. Every week, I try to keep up with not only the biggest games, but also the most bitter games, the most interesting players, and games involving teams that are either particularly fun, particularly strange, or both. This season, these are the guiding principles I'm following.
Make certain that your internal calendar does not end with the major rivalries.
Because each week begins with some fence posts, consider this a loose guide to the biggest and/or most intense matches of each week leading up to the World Cup. It's difficult to assign particularly high stakes to single games this early in the season, but these games will deliver plenty of bang regardless of the stakes.
Recognize the most competitive races.
Assigning title significance to early matches is a mistake: the season is far too long, and we'll exhaust ourselves if we pay too much attention to the table too soon. But we also go into each season knowing which races will be more difficult than others. It's not a bad idea to acknowledge that.
The "fun, young-ish, and spirited contenders for a Champions League spot (or better)"
Each season, a group of clubs has high expectations but manages to bring a lot of up-and-coming energy to the table. They are usually (but not always) quite young and entertaining to watch. Here is my best guess for this year's crop:
Napoli- Last season, they scored the third-most goals in Serie A, allowed the second-fewest, and had a better goal differential than champion AC Milan. Victor Osimhen is one of the most entertaining players in Italy, and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, a 21-year-old Georgia international winger acquired from Dinamo Batumi, made the best possible first impression this week, scoring and assisting in his club debut.
Whether they win their first Scudetto since 1990 or not, you will never regret watching a Napoli game. They are passionate and incredibly optimistic. (Their 5-2 win over Hellas Verona on Monday was, to say the least, proof of concept in this regard.) Man, they were having a good time.)
Arsenal- Arsenal, yes. I'm not sure how to respond to liking the moves the Gunners make in any given offseason, but adding Gabriel Jesus and Oleksandr Zinchenko – two seasoned Manchester City title winners who are still only 25 years old – to one of the Premier League's youngest and most high-upside rosters was fantastic business. Jesus has two goals and two assists in Arsenal's first two games (both wins), and the team is playing well despite receiving little from Bukayo Saka.
After a dreadful first three matches, this was the third-best team in England last season, and there's reason to be optimistic that their five-season absence from the Champions League will end soon, even if they'll have to beat out one similarly rich and organized team to get there.
Betis Real-This Betis squad isn't particularly young (only one player under 25 started in Los Verdiblancos' debut romp over 10-man Elche), but Manuel Pellegrini's squad, led in attack by Juanmi, Nabil Fekir, and Borja Iglesias, was perhaps LaLiga's most optimistic and exciting last year, and the Betis crowd is one of Spain's best. Only a slow start kept them from finishing in the top four last season.
Lyon-Lyon, like Arsenal, brings history and expectations to the table, but they've been outside the top three for three years in a row. Adding veterans Alexandre Lacazette, Nicolas Tagliafico, and Corentin Tolisso to a lineup that includes younger players like winger Tete (22), midfielder Lucas Paqueta (24), and another newcomer, Johann Lepenant (19), could pay off. Tete was particularly impressive in a season-opening victory.
Almost everyone in Belgium. Do you enjoy the Bundesliga but believe the matches aren't chaotic enough? The Jupiler Pro League has arrived! It had by far the best title race of any of Europe's top leagues, with Union Saint-Gilloise winning the regular season but narrowly losing the playoff to heavyweight Club Brugge. There are also goals, goals, goals, and more goals.
Seven teams have averaged at least 1.8 goals per match through four matchdays, while Genk has averaged 3.3. Royal Antwerp have a 12-point lead, but Brugge, Genk, Gent, and Anderlecht are all in contention for the title. From start to finish, this is going to be absolute, wonderful nonsense... and ESPN+ airs a selection of matches every weekend!).
Teams doing strange things
In any sport, there is a dominant style of play at any given time. Basketball is heavy on three-pointers and layups right now, while baseball is in full swing with strikeouts and home runs. For a long time, soccer has been trending toward a modern combination of slow buildup, possession play, and counter-pressing, but only the richest club teams can afford the most possession-friendly pieces. That leaves everyone else to either win without the ball or devise a more unique strategy.
Only one of these five teams has a good chance of finishing in the top tier, but they are "Trying Things" and are worth watching.
Brighton: control without firepower. Graham Potter's Seagulls have done as well as any mid-level team in crafting a possession-friendly approach without a heavyweight budget for two seasons in a row. They have lacked the high-quality finishing needed to secure one of England's European berths, but they have finished in the top 10 in both years, and their level of organization is frustrating for most opponents.
Athletic Club: year after year, it's just infuriating. Last year, both Freiburg and Union Berlin came close to qualifying for the Champions League by playing a defensive-heavy style that contradicted our perceptions of "Bundesliga ball." But let us remember a team that has been doing it for a long time. Athletic finished in the top ten again last season by allowing less than a goal per game. They almost never give opponents good chances at goal, and while they aren't as physical as they were during the "Butcher of Bilbao" era of the 1980s, they don't mind a few bruises. They continue to play this cup-friendly style as well as anyone, even if they never score nearly enough to finish in the top four.
Bayer Leverkusen: possession and counterattacks at the same time. Granted, their defensive spacing has been abysmal this season, but Gerardo Seoane's team crafted a particularly appealing style of play last year by combining elements of possession with a proclivity for luring opponents into their half of the field in order to open up huge counterattacking opportunities. I believe they will return to a high level soon. (They had better for Seoane's sake.)
Udinese: haymakers at all times. Twelfth place is about the most forgettable position in the table, but Udinese finished in memorable fashion last season, scoring and allowing more than a goal and a half per match. They were fantastic at creating scoring opportunities in transition while being terrible at preventing opponents from doing the same. From the standpoint of "styles make fights," they could suck anyone into a track meet. And, despite a new manager (Andrea Sottil), their first match of the season, a 4-2 loss to defending champions Milan, suggests they're still open to such a style this season. That's at least good news for us.
NERRRRRDS, Toulouse. Looking to join a Moneyball soccer team? How about one associated with Moneyball's godfather, Billy Beane? In 2020, RedBird Capital, an American investment firm with which Beane is affiliated, acquired this recently relegated club and set about restoring it to glory through the power of analytics. Thus far, so good. Toulouse easily earned promotion last season, hitting all the notes of a strong possession-and-pressing team, and while one match can only teach you so much, they controlled the field and held their own against likely top-10 French side Nice in a 1-1 draw to begin the season. We'll see if they have the depth to cause long-term damage, but if you want to see where nerds want to take this sport, keep an eye on this club.
PART TWO COMMING UP!
Stay Tuned
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