India's economy is not thriving, with high youth unemployment, high farmers' agitation, and a lack of recovery in micro, small, and medium enterprises. The government has decided to supply free grain rations to 800 million citizens for the next five years, but the income divide remains stark. The Global Hunger Index ranks India 111 out of 125 countries, with Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka ranking higher. Nepal supports the poorest parts of India by providing jobs to migrant labor and is the seventh-largest remittance-sending country to the Indian economy. A socially stable and economically dynamic India would benefit its neighbours through backward and forward linkages of their economies, and the key requirement for India's own economic progress is the opening of inter-South Asian commerce. India's demographic dividend will be useful only to provide billions of consumers to Western multinationals, not to raise itself as a manufacturing and industrial powerhouse to match China.
India, a middle power with global ambitions, is currently focusing on the subcontinent as the South Asia hegemon. Its perceived geopolitical strengths are not due to its socio-economic prowess but the rise of China and its large population. However, India lacks economic and geostrategic strength concomitant with its ambitions. Western leaders often visit India to sell hardware and maintain public support, leading to advantageous deals without requiring intellectual property rights. Modi's introduction of schemes like the Agnipath scheme, which modernizes the military without consulting top brass, has impacted loyalty streams, demotivated military career aspirants, and ignited fears of social instability.
India's bid for a seat in the United Nations Security Council requires a recalibration of its veto-power and membership system. To achieve this, India must cut deals with Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia, and Iran, as well as mend fences with South Asian countries like Pakistan. India's stance as a regional bully must be abandoned to achieve a permanent seat in the Security Council. Modi's focus on the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) organization and the BIMSTEC grouping may not be enough to fulfill India's ambitions. To send a signal of friendship across South Asia, Modi should attend the 19th SAARC summit in Islamabad and transfer chairmanship from Nepal to Pakistan. The doomsday clock for South Asia is ticking, and the robustness of failsafe mechanisms and protocols between Islamabad and New Delhi is a matter that concerns all, regardless of geography.
India has been a focus for activists in various sectors, including de-nuclearisation, information rights, refugees, and climate change. However, the Modi era has led to a decline in civil society, with many scholars and opinion-makers going silent. The demolition of a 400-year-old mosque in Uttar Pradesh in 1992 accelerated this weakening. India's public image is heavily influenced by Narendra Modi, who appears to be able to fool the public. The country has been transformed into a centralized autocracy, with the possibility of a humanitarian disaster when the people have had enough. The answer seems to lie in federalism, where India's provinces bring governance closer to the citizenry and act as a buffer for their needs and desires. The general elections of 2024 must provide pathways to the federal future of India, ensuring that the country remains an imperfect federal democracy.
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