In economics, risk management occupies one of the leading roles in the planning of management strategy. Enterprises use indicators for assessing risky positions to build a regulatory framework for many departments, but the question of methods for conducting such an assessment, and even more so about methods for identifying risks for each enterprise, and sometimes for the department, is decided individually. It is necessary to understand that the oil and gas industry stands apart from other segments of the Russian economy, since the ability to conduct a flexible strategic policy of the oil and gas sector in the context of globalization of economic processes is an important competitive advantage not only for enterprises in the oil and gas market, but also for Russia in the international arena: the oil and gas industry accounts for more than 25% of Russian industrial production and provides over 50% of revenues from the country's export activities [1, p. 283]. In addition, the complexity of building a management strategy for an oil and gas complex enterprise is caused by the complexity of the process of oil and gas production and processing, as well as significant uncertainty of the external environment, which is why it is so important to form a risk management system at such enterprises.
To better understand the capabilities of the oil and gas complex in the field of risk forecasting, we will first highlight the main features of risks specific exclusively to this area. We have already noted that oil and gas industry enterprises are highly dependent on external conditions. The performance indicators of such enterprises are particularly dependent on natural conditions, so in this case, a specific risk associated with the non-discovery of the deposit is highlighted, including the risks of natural disasters in the territories used. The next important factor in the occurrence of critical situations is the rather long duration of the implementation of oil and gas projects. This may lead to the discovery of a deposit that does not meet the profitability standards of the enterprise or to risks associated with changing market conditions for the final product. Of course, a sufficiently high capital intensity of such enterprises can serve as a catalyst for the development of previous events. Thus, the possibility of risks increases with long-term searches and the long duration of the process of field development itself. Various regulatory and legal risks arise in the process of opening a new oil and gas project, when recent bills may block production or stop the processing of petroleum products. During the production process, various legal disputes may arise over the non-fulfillment of obligations by the parties (contractors, suppliers of equipment, raw materials, etc.) as a result of the imperfection of the legislative system in the oil and gas sector [2, p. 137]. The solution and, more importantly, the prevention of such situations is possible only in the case of an effectively built risk forecasting system based on the risk management system in the oil and gas complex enterprises. From the point of view of economic and mathematical methods in risk management, the most effective way of all kinds of forecasting is the construction of various mathematical models. This approach to the study of the probabilities of possible flow of production and business processes at the enterprise can be called the main risk management method currently in force, since mathematical modeling has been implemented not only within the framework of Russian large companies, but also in foreign corporations [3, p. 52]. The mathematical model makes it possible to fully assess the probability of occurrence of an event that affects the activities of the enterprise, and to plan future costs in connection with this event. Economic and mathematical modeling includes not only the identification of various statistical patterns and economic dependencies, but also the prediction of various possible processes. From the point of view of risk management, the causal relationships of events that have already occurred are studied on the basis of various correlation coefficients, and subsequently these coefficients allow us to build a competitive model of a single event, its consequences, the influence of several events on each other and the possible effects of overlapping events on each other [4, p. 22]. Such a model can be presented both in the form of mathematical calculations and in the form of graphical objects (tables, diagrams, graphs) – simulation modeling. The consequences of the impact of risks are analyzed on the basis of models and, based on the findings, possible measures are formulated to combat the causes or consequences of adverse events. In the field of economics, other methods of risk forecasting are quite common, including at oil and gas industry enterprises. Optimization theory is a good example that includes many different methods of analysis and forecasting, such as linear programming, stochastic optimization, cybernetic models and even game theory [5, p. 60]. All of them can be used at the enterprise to obtain the most complete picture of the possible consequences of each step in the process of managing the production of petroleum products. Thus, with the help of linear programming, standard problems of optimizing production and sales volumes are solved, which later become the basis for forecasting risks, such as the unprofitability of a field, a long payback period for an oil and gas project or an oversupply of products relative to demand in a particular production. There are also some qualitative methods of risk assessment, such as analysis of the nature and consequences of failure (failuremodeandeffectanalysis, FMEA), which provides an approximate quantitative analysis of the causes and consequences of risks based on artificially created measurable scales [6, p. 94]. This method works in cases of internal risks at the enterprise and is aimed at product quality management rather than forecasting more global risks associated with both the production process and external threats, since it is quite subjective and has nothing to do with mathematical planning. Summarizing all the above facts, it should be noted that effective management at the enterprise is associated with the formation of a loyal planning system, which implies risk management. Risk forecasting is also characteristic of oil and gas complex enterprises, however, along with the risks common to all sectors of the Russian economy, there are specific threats in the oil and gas industry, mainly related to the dynamics in the external environment. Such risks can be managed by applying various economic and mathematical methods, the range of which is quite extensive. The most promising and developing in modern conditions is the method of constructing mathematical models that can reliably and briefly describe trends in the oil and gas industry market in a specific period of time and, based on the analysis obtained, build a reliable forecast about the risks possible in the future.
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