One month of war in Ukraine - and the result for Putin is disastrous.
It's war in Europe again. For a month now, tanks have been rolling in Ukraine, shells have been hitting residential buildings, people have been dying. The Russian attack on the neighboring state came as a surprise to most observers, despite all the threatening gestures and the conspicuous deployment of troops. One thing is certain: this war represents a turning point in time, marking the end of the peace and security order that has prevailed since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
War means suffering. Thousands of civilians and soldiers have already died in this one month, and millions of people are on the run. The consequences of these traumatic events are incalculable. The long-term political and economic consequences of this conflict are also only outlined at present, especially since an end to the war is not in sight.
Nevertheless, there are findings, some of a surprising nature, that can already be considered certain. And the question remains as to how things will proceed - first and foremost militarily. At the moment, the two sides are facing each other in a stalemate. It is still possible that the Russian army will learn from its mistakes or will be able to bring its numerical superiority to bear. But a debacle is also possible - or a bloody prolongation of the stalemate until one side is exhausted.
The Russian blitzkrieg has failed
One month after the beginning of the war, it can be stated: The dreaded Russian steamroller has bogged down. While Putin's troops advanced quickly toward Kiev or Kharkiv on the first day, the attack stalled almost everywhere thereafter. The Russian army was able to make only modest gains, mainly in the southeast and east, where it managed to establish a land link between Crimea and the Donbass. For weeks, the course of the front has changed only slightly; there can no longer be any talk of a rapid and decisive advance in blitzkrieg style.
The Russian army has been overestimated
Even in the war of position that has developed on almost all fronts since the Russian advance stalled, the Russian army has not made a good impression so far. Its military performance is even more embarrassing when measured against previous fears that the Russian force, which had been upgraded for years, would crush any resistance with its modern weapons systems and overwhelming superiority in men and materiel. Added to this was the combat experience that some officers brought with them from missions in Syria or Chechnya.
Senior officers in particular, however, were decimated in Ukraine in an unprecedented manner. These losses - so far, five or even six of probably a total of 20 major generals deployed in Ukraine have fallen - are an indication of leadership problems in the Russian army. Officers may have gone near the front to enforce their orders, suggesting a lack of discipline or morale among the troops.
The failure of modern communication systems, which made Russian soldiers transmit messages by cell phone, revealed another weakness of the army. It allowed the Ukrainian defenders to deal their opponents several delicate blows. Moreover, despite overwhelming superiority, the Russian air force has surprisingly not yet succeeded in gaining air supremacy over Ukraine. It is also not cooperating efficiently with the ground forces, as it generally appears that the Russian branches of the armed forces are not acting in a coordinated manner.
Now the quasi-traditional Russian neglect of logistics is also taking its revenge, for example in comparison with the U.S. armed forces. There are numerous reports of tanks that were simply abandoned by their crews due to a lack of fuel, or of soldiers looting food because rations were missing.
However, the Ukrainian civilian population is paying a high price for all these problems of the Russian troops: It seems that in the face of the stalemate, the army is taking refuge in combat tactics that it had already used in the Chechen war - cue Grozny. There, the Russians tried to break any resistance by almost completely destroying the city.
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