During the spring, Russia stationed thousands of troops at its border with Ukraine, and there was much speculation about the likelihood of a new great offensive by the Kremlin. Seven months passed, and again there were more fears of war. Western media, such as The New York Times and Bloomberg, have quoted U.S. officials as saying that a winter offensive by Russia is likely. Some of them claimed that the potential offensive could be greater than the war in 2014.
Satellite imagery shows troops arriving in the west of Russia and in the occupied Crimea.
It is impossible to say at this time what Russia's intentions are or whether Vladimir Putin has any plans at all. But below we have answered some of the most important questions about the current situation.Is there really a threat of new major military action from the side of Russia?
There is at least some evidence to suggest so.
U.S. intelligence and Ukrainian military commanders claim that close to 92,000 Russian troops are stationed on the Ukrainian coast and on the surrounding area, particularly in the area of the city of Elnia, near the Russian-Belarusian border. Russian troops are also arriving in Crimea.
This year, CNN, citing sources in the White House, reported that the United States is considering sending troops to Ukraine and providing new equipment, including ammunition.
Earlier, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken had already stated that Washington was "really concerned" about the actions of the Russian forces and the likelihood of a new offensive. He warned that it would be a "serious mistake.
Officially, Moscow denies the statements and calls them "indefensible," but the words of the low-ranking officials and Kremlin analysts are a signal to the contrary. Russia threatens to take action if Washington and the West do not listen to Russian demands regarding the situation in Donbas, ties between Kiev and NATO, and the presence of Western troops in Western Europe and the Black Sea.
The previous attacks in 2008 in Georgia and 2014 in Crimea and Donbass started with statements of provocations. Russia also blamed Kiev and the U.S. for the recent events through the usual operations in the Black Sea and military training in Western Europe. These trainings were planned long ago, NATO asserts.
The movement of troops to the Ukrainian border is not the only cause for concern. Over the past six months, Putin and several other Russian officials have published aggressive articles about Ukraine, questioning its right to exist. They refuse to recognize the democratically established Ukrainian authorities.
Mikola Patrushev, Secretary of the Russian Security Council and a close associate of Putin, recently said that Ukraine is facing an "Afghan scenario". He pointed to the danger caused by the import of foreign armor and asserted that there is apparently a danger of disruption in the country. At the same time, Patrushev did not provide any concrete evidence to back up his words.
This is largely intended for the Russian domestic audience.
Mikhail Gonchar.
This year the Foreign Intelligence Service of Russia condemned the so-called "provocations" of the United States and threateningly stated that they "had been following a similar situation in Georgia before the 2008 riots. At that time Russian troops occupied part of the country and then declared "independence" of two Georgian regions.
It is likely that these statements are not only directed at the West, but can also contribute to the mobilization of the Russians, analysts believe.
"This is largely designed for the internal Russian audience," said Mikhail Gonchar, president of the Center for Global Studies "Strategy XXI", to the TV channel "Present Time", produced by Radio Liberty with the participation of "Voice of America".
Why now?
Apparently, the leadership of Russia wants to take advantage of the instability in the region, which it has created. Under such conditions, the response to the Russian strike will be less violent than it would have been during quiet times, some analysts believe.
Poland is fighting an influx of immigrants lured to Belarus by promises of an easy crossing of the EU's external border. Warsaw believes that this crisis is the result of the operation for the destabilization of Europe, which Lukashenka had planned and which Putin supported.
At the same time, Moldova accused Russia of energy blackmail during the gas crisis. Moscow, however, maintains that Moldova does not pay its debts. Moscow wants to demonstrate Europe's dependence on gas and exerts pressure on Germany to grant permits for the operation of the pipeline Pivnichnyi Potok-2, Kremlin critics complain.
Moscow is deliberately increasing the pressure in the region by accusing NATO of provocations. NATO somehow does not want to adhere to those "black lines" that Putin talks about.
In an interview with the Rumunsky service of Radio Liberty, Deputy Secretary General of NATO Mircea Joana said that in the Black Sea NATO acts proactively and with defense goals.
Moscow is flooding Ukraine militarily in order to make the country neutral.
Alina Polyakova
For the last hour Russia has been declaring its demands, "black lines," which are becoming more and more unacceptable for NATO, Washington, the West, and, most of all, for Ukraine. Putin makes it clear that Ukraine cannot have its own sovereign foreign policy.
Earlier the "black line" was Ukraine's accession to NATO, but now they are talking about any expansion of military cooperation with the Mid-Atlantic alliance.
"Moscow is filling Ukraine militarily in order to make it neutral," says Alina Polyakova, director of the CEPA research center. "If this does not happen, a military invasion is very real," she wrote on her website.
What are Russia's goals?
First of all, they are about increasing the impact on Ukraine.
The capture of part of the Donbas, a relatively small territory of Ukraine, is seen as a tool to influence the whole country, in particular its foreign policy and its accession to NATO.
It is likely that Putin fears that he will not achieve this goal. Russia will control part of Ukraine, but will not reach the real goal - maximum control over the country.
In an article for Politico, Samuel Charap, a senior researcher at the RAND Corporation think tank, quotes a Russian diplomat. He claims that "gaining Donbass, but losing Ukraine is a tragedy for the Kremlin.
Analysts believe that the capture of all of Ukraine is unlikely. Some of them believe that Russia wants to take over the territories in the center of Ukraine, i.e. the land between the temporarily occupied regions of Ukraine.
Others believe that Moscow will intensify military operations in the Donbas in order to force Ukraine to act. And that Russia will not allow the front to expand, which will lead to great losses and suffering for it on the international arena.
Does Russia have something to lose?
The Supreme Command [of Russia] must be aware that many soldiers will return home crippled, wounded or as part of the-200
Mark Galeotti
The Zahid has been consistently rhetorical about Russia launching a new invasion of Ukraine. This includes the new package of sanctions and the specter of the launch of "Dnipro-2", on which Russia spent a lot of resources.
The invasion of Ukrainian cities by Russian troops could lead to hundreds or even thousands of soldiers returning to Russia in wartime. Putin wants to stay on as president, but this circumstance could put him off.
"The Supreme Command [of Russia] cannot be unaware that many soldiers will return home crippled, wounded, or as Vantage-200," analyst Mark Galeotti recently wrote in the Moscow Times.
This could all be a public relations game to force Kyiv to negotiate with Moscow on Russian terms
Mark Galeotti
"Still, if Putin is willing to take the risk of sanctions, international condemnation and internal disorder caused by a crooked war, then the invasion can begin," the analyst notes. Putin "feels that the delay will only complicate further actions, so it is better to strike earlier," admits Galeotti.
"Again, this could all be a public relations game to force Kiev to negotiate with Moscow on Russian terms," he adds.
Is Putin bluffing?
There is no unequivocal answer at the moment. But studying how Russia acted in the past will help us understand the current situation and predict the events of this winter.
After the occupation of Crimea and the beginning of the war in Donbas, Western analysts and media outlets repeatedly predicted the possibility of a new offensive. This did not happen and as a result the build-up of troops did not look like a prelude to an attack, but like a demonstration of force before Putin's meeting with Joe Biden or NATO training in Europe.
The Putin regime is moving along a razor's edge now.
Mikhail Gonchar
The current escalation may also be part of Moscow's policy of constant pressure on the West. It can be used to reinforce the Russian claims of structural warfare through NATO actions.
"The Putin regime is now following a razor's edge, because they want to put the "Dnipro-2" into operation, and if they start some military operation, even if it is highly disguised, then in the end result it will mean the end of the "Dnipro-2"," Mikhailo Gonchar notes. "Russia just wants to show that it can do it," the analyst admits.
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