According to scientists, reducing the amount of meat in the human diet and increasing consumption of fruits and vegetables by 2050 could avoid several million annual deaths, significantly reduce emissions leading to a warming planet, and save billions of dollars spent on medical costs and the fight against environmental and climate problems.
A new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America estimates for the first time the impact that a global shift to a plant-based diet could have on human health and climate change.
As noted by Marco Springmann, lead author of the study from the Oxford Martin Program on the Future of Food, unbalanced diets pose the greatest risk to global health, and our food system produces more than a quarter of greenhouse gas emissions.
Researchers at Oxford University have modeled what effects four types of diets could have on human health and the environment by mid-century.
The first is a baseline scenario, based on projections by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), in which food consumption patterns would not change.
The second is a scenario based on the global principles of healthy eating (developed, in particular, by the WHO), implying that people consume only enough calories to maintain an optimal weight and limit consumption of sugar and meat.
The third scenario is vegetarian and the fourth is vegan, while they also imply optimal caloric intake.
Health, Environmental, and Economic Outcomes
Global adherence to a healthy diet would help avoid 5.1 million annual deaths by 2050, and a vegan diet would avoid 8.1 million deaths! (And I willingly believe this: it is no coincidence that the diets of long-livers from around the planet consist mostly of plant-based foods).
In terms of climate change, global dietary recommendations would help reduce emissions related to food production and consumption by 29%; a vegetarian diet would reduce them by 63% and a vegan diet by 70%.
Food changes would help save an estimated $700 billion to $1,000 billion a year in health care and disability losses, while the economic benefit of reducing greenhouse gas emissions could be $570 billion, the study says. The economic benefits of improved public health could equal - and even exceed - the value of avoided damage from climate change.
"The value of these benefits makes a strong case for increased public and private funding for programs to promote healthier and more environmentally sustainable diets," Springmann notes.
Regional differences
The researchers found that three-quarters of all savings from dietary changes would occur in developing countries, although the per capita effects would be greatest in developed countries due to higher meat consumption and obesity.
Researchers have analyzed regional differences to consider when determining the most appropriate measures for food production and consumption. For example, reducing red meat would have the greatest effect in Western developed countries, East Asia and Latin America, while increasing fruit and vegetable consumption would have the greatest effect on reducing mortality in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.
Of course, one should not think that implementing these changes will be easy. Switching to a second scenario diet would require a 25% increase in fruit and vegetable consumption worldwide and a 56% reduction in red meat consumption (by the way, read about 6 reasons to eat as little meat as possible). And overall, people will need to consume 15% fewer calories.
"We don't expect everyone to become vegan," Springmann admits. - But the impact of the food system on climate change will be difficult to address and will probably require more than just technological change. Switching to a healthier, more sustainable diet could be a big step in the right direction."
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