The first cryptocurrency is trading 40% below historical highs, however, there are several factors that can lead to its sharp rise in price in the coming months.
On February 3, the bitcoin exchange rate dropped to $36.2 thousand, after which it again exceeded $ 37 thousand. Two days ago, the cost of the first cryptocurrency rose above $ 39 thousand, but could not stay at this level and fell in price. The asset is trading 46% below the historical maximum of $69 thousand, set in November last year.
Experts have named factors that can lead to a sharp rise in the price of bitcoin up to $ 100 thousand. already this year.
Such a scenario is acceptable, although unlikely. There are several factors that can provoke such rapid growth in the next six months. All that is needed for this now is a serious local impulse for growth.
One of the most likely factors is an increase in inflation in the United States, followed by a tightening of the Fed's policy and a serious increase in the base rate. This can provoke uncontrolled movements in the markets. Then the crypto market may be in the black.
The second factor may be "whales", which are very likely to move into the active phase of accumulation after bitcoin overcomes the level of $ 30 thousand. Such a price is already becoming very comfortable for long-term and medium-term investors, which can reverse the situation on the market and provoke "panic purchases" on the scale of all retail investors.
The third factor is the approval of such a long-awaited bitcoin ETF from the "spot" market. Existing futures ETFs are not able to meet all the needs of the market, so their effect is more local. But it is worth noting that such a tool will not only strengthen the position of bitcoin, but, on the contrary, will increase its volatility. Potentially, this can also contribute to the necessary growth momentum. And this, in turn, will already start the mechanics of the market and may change the global trend of the market to an upward one.
The update of the previous historical maximum in the second half of last year certainly indicates that bitcoin is globally in a new upward cycle. In such a situation, it is logical to pay attention to the historical behavior of the bitcoin price and highlight the previous phases of growth and decline.
However, I would not rely solely on the historical behavior of the price in the forecast. Just as I would not adhere exclusively to the rules of one price forecasting model, given at least the fact that the cryptocurrency market is changing and is increasingly integrated into the financial sector with all its conditions.
Of course, it is necessary to remember about the cyclical behavior of bitcoin, taking into account at least the halving dates and the subsequent reduction in supply. Based on this, 2022 may indeed become a year of parabolic growth, repeating the fate of 2013 and 2017, and as a price guide, I rely on the psychological figure of $ 100 thousand. This mark, long before bitcoin reached $20 thousand or $50 thousand, appeared in the media as the fair price of the first cryptocurrency. In many ways, the community is focused on achieving it.
As for the events that will directly affect the exchange rate, there is nothing new here: regulation will definitely have a positive impact on the exchange rate, US news and the Fed, depending on their content, as well as the creation of an increasing number of infrastructure projects for the mass adoption of cryptocurrencies.
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