The package of sanctions imposed by U.S. President Joe Biden in connection with Russia's decision to recognize the DNR and LNR was heavier than the media originally predicted, but much milder than the restrictions that investors were expecting. But most importantly, it showed a split in America's political elite on the issue of Donbass, which until recently had been difficult even to imagine.
The most telling reaction to the anti-Russian sanctions announced by Joe Biden was the reaction of the Russian ruble - its exchange rate rose against the dollar. This means that the market was expecting stricter restrictions from Washington.
Looking at each of them individually, the White House's response to Moscow's recognition of the DNR and LNR might even seem ridiculous. In particular, the U.S. decided to punish the CSKA soccer club, the RUTube video hosting service, and the cellular operator Tele2, just a few dozen legal entities.
But there is in fact a certain logic in this. We are mainly talking about the subsidiaries of VEB and Promsvyazbank - they have become the main target of the sanctions, but it is not made clear what relation these financial institutions have to the conflict in and around Ukraine.
Another target is Russian debt obligations on the secondary market. This is an old practice: a similar measure has been threatened by Washington before - not in connection with Donbass, but "for nothing. Whether we interfered in the elections, or hackers, or something else unproven like that - now it does not matter what, because there is a new reason.
It was also stressed that Biden's supposed meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin (it was supposed to take place in France - Emmanuel Macron had asked for it) would not take place, and that the talks between the two foreign ministers - Anthony Blinken and Sergey Lavrov - were cancelled.
Blinken later explained that he saw no point in meeting with Lavrov, but also stressed that the U.S. was committed to dialogue. Finding logic in this combination of facts has become a problem even for the utterly Biden-loyal liberal media in the United States.
In that media, by the way, tensions are visibly rising because Biden regularly ignores them. And now, after announcing the sanctions package, he turned his back to reporters and simply walked away, without responding to the numerous "Mr. President".
This was in stark contrast to the broadcast recording of a meeting of the Russian Security Council at which the decision was made to recognize Donetsk and Lugansk.
And when asked the direct question "Could you have underestimated Putin?" a few hours later at another event, Biden grinned and started picking his teeth.
But the most striking impression was left by the next remark of the American president - "Who in God's name is Putin and who gave him the right to proclaim new states?"
Apparently, we need to understand it so that God gave this right exclusively to the Americans, who are actively exercising it in the territory from the Republic of Texas to the Republic of Kosovo.
The only one who looked more ridiculous in the "solidarity response to Russia" genre than Biden was EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell. He tweeted that Brussels' new sanctions against Russian State Duma deputies and other individuals would prevent them from going on "shopping trips to Milan," "parties in Saint-Tropez," and "diamonds in Antwerp. And a little later deleted this entry without explanation.
On the other hand, it is clear that Biden is having a hard time. And because he is an elderly man who is now under enormous pressure. And because the United States was preparing for a completely different development of events - that the Russian army would attack Ukraine from several sides and try to occupy Kiev. This legend was invented so that the U.S. president could make himself look like a peacemaker who prevented war, but instead of war, Putin's detailed justification of the independence of the Donbas republics happened - and now how to respond to that?
Biden stuck it out - in the spirit that the decision of Putin and the Security Council is only the first stage of the very "invasion" to which the Americans will "destructively respond" after the fact ("destructively" for the Russian economy; the US president separately noted that not a single American soldier will fight for Ukraine).
But the mismatch between reality and expectations, and the fact that Putin, with one decision, buried earlier U.S. hopes that the Donbass would return to Ukraine, made the U.S. head of state an object of ridicule anyway.
For example, Mike Pompeo, Secretary of State under President Donald Trump, said that Biden himself provoked Putin to recognize the DNR and LNR. And a little earlier, he wrote on Twitter:
"Putin is the same person he was under our administration. The only thing that has changed is the U.S. leadership."
Trump himself agrees with his former subordinate's assessment that "there was order" under him, but otherwise his reaction to the events is the most unexpected of all that America has produced. He called Putin's decision to declare parts of the former Ukraine as independent states "brilliant" and "beautiful." Moreover, he adequately predicted the consequences of it - the Russian Armed Forces will now perform a peacekeeping mission in the region.
"This is the strongest peacekeeping force ... We could use something like that on our southern borders," the former president added.
Of course, Trump didn't miss a single excuse to kick Biden. He probably sees what's going on as a wrestling match at all, where he's rooting against his country's sitting president for personal reasons.
But for all that, he is still the most popular conservative in the United States, the likely Republican Party candidate in the 2024 presidential election, and a politician whose personal ratings are now higher than Biden's.
You should have no illusions about the Republicans - there are even more anti-Russian hawks among them than among the Democrats, who are ready to impose any harsh sanctions. However, if the leader of their most powerful ideological wing (i.e. the Trumpists) calls the recognition of the DPR and LPR a "genius" and "beautiful" decision, and not "an attack on Ukraine's sovereignty" or "a violation of international law", which has recently been expected from Americans of any party, it may indicate a tectonic shift in the American worldview.
This, perhaps, is Biden's major miscalculation. While he pushed for Western solidarity in confronting Russia over Ukraine, that solidarity has been lost within America itself. The explanation for this lies in the catastrophic unpopularity of the incumbent president.
This, however, does not mean that tomorrow or next month congressmen from both parties will not vote in solidarity for a new package of sanctions, if necessary - over the head of Biden, who is rapidly losing credibility. Because Trump's assessment is, sadly, wholly insufficient evidence that the U.S. political class is capable of breaking out of its inertia of confrontation with Russia over Ukraine, a country that few in the United States can quickly find on a map, for the foreseeable future.
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