Nothing so far suggests that President Putin intends to retire from Russia's highest office in the near future.
Mr. Putin's recent initiatives, and in particular his proposed changes to the Constitution, indicate his intention to occupy another influential position after leaving the presidency. If it goes as planned, he will become a sort of Deng-like supreme leader in China after 1978.
There seems to be no end to Putinism for many years to come.
Without getting into the discussion of whether or not an end to President Putin's reign is desirable, what can disrupt his plans, other than his sudden death from natural causes? (The sudden rush for constitutional reforms several years before the end of his current term may indeed indicate that the man received some unpleasant news from his doctor.)
This is the answer that Russian history suggests: a palace revolution.
Consider the known "messy" transfers of power over the 300 years of our most recent history.
Peter III: palace revolution.
Paul I: palace revolution.
Nicolas II: abdication following a defection of the closest supporters. A coup d'etat by absence of power.
Stalin: possible poisoning
Beria: palace revolution.
Khrushchev: palace revolution.
Gorbachev: A behind-the-scenes deal between nationalist leaders that ultimately amounted to a coup.
There are two known exceptions to this trend:
The Communist Revolution of 1917. Yet the overthrow of the unpopular Provisional Government by a group of Bolshevik soldiers looked more like a commando blitz than the epic popular uprising as we used to portray it in Soviet propaganda .
The transfer of power from Yeltsin to Putin. It was not so much a question of "getting Yeltsin out of his office" as of ensuring that everything would continue as before in the face of Yeltsin's apparent incapacity.
Based on these facts, and knowing the state of civil society in Russia, we can rule out the likelihood of a "political revolution" in Moscow. It is almost non-existent. A palace revolution or the death of the principal remain the most likely outcomes.
Below are two additions to the gallery of "Putin forever" memes. The humor revolves around the implicit assumption that our President will outlive anyone who makes jokes about him. The text says "He is here for eternity".
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